Weekly Market Wrap 29/09/2023

European inflation data surprises markets, whilst oil  continues to push higher as demand expectations rise and supplies fall. The US government could enter a shutdown which would likely spark volatility for financial markets while UK economic data is revised upward.

UK Market  

The UK market ended the week lower. ONS data released on Friday revised previous estimates of GDP growth higher. New data shows that as of the end of Q2 2023, the UK economy is 1.8% larger than it was in Q4 of 2019, the last data point before covid-19. The increased rate of growth is faster than the rate seen in both Germany and France, however other nations are expected to revise data in the coming weeks too.

US Markets

The S&P 500 is currently 0.47% lower this week, whilst the Nasdaq is set to end the week flat. The US government is currently heading for a shutdown as the House of Representatives refuses to agree on a bill that would fund the government until November. If a shutdown is to occur, then there are likely to be delays in the release of key pieces of economic data such as unemployment and inflation measures. It is feared that if less reliable sources of data had to be used that volatility within markets could increase due to the lack of certainty. A lack of high quality data available to Federal Reserve officials could reduce the likelihood of a further interest rate increase due to a lack of information to justify a hike.

European Markets 

The Euro Stoxx 50 is currently 0.08% lower this week. Eurozone inflation data came in lower than expected on Friday, as CPI fell to the lowest level seen in two years. CPI fell to 4.3% from 5.2% (est. 4.5%) whilst core inflation fell to 5.5%, down from 6.2% (est 5.7%). Prices of goods slowed broadly, with the data reinforcing the view of many market participants that the ECB has reached its terminal rate.

 Fixed Income

Yields on US 10-year bonds rose this week by 0.15% to 4.57% this week, pushed higher by concerns that rising oil prices could keep inflation above the target rate.

Commodities

Brent crude gained 3.09% this week, rising to $96 per barrel, boosted by expectations of strong Chinese demand for oil over the Golden Week holiday. An additional driver was low US supply of oil, with reserves at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma at their lowest levels in more than a year.

The Week Ahead

Monday –  UK House Prices, US Manufacturing Data

Tuesday – RBA Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday – US Unemployment, European Retail Sales

Thursday –

Friday – UK Nonfarm Payrolls

*x% up/down to price as of last week’s close