Weekly Market Wrap 09/06/2023

The Eurozone fell into a technical recession, but markets were relatively quiet this week as all eyes turn to Key CPI data and central bank decisions in the US and Europe next week.

UK Market 

The UK market ended the week lower. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden this week signed the “Atlantic Declaration” which seeks to increase cooperation between the two countries on issues such as AI, trade, and defence. Global credit rating agency Moody’s has warned that house prices in Britain are likely to fall 10% over the next two years as UK rates continue to push higher, which is expected to feed through to mortgage rates in the coming months.

US Markets

The S&P 500 is set to end the week flat at 4,293 and the NASDAQ is unchanged at 13,238. US stocks have rallied 20% from the lows seen in October 2022, a move viewed by many market participants to represent a new bull market. Despite broader markets pushing higher, much of the rally seen in the S&P 500 has been driven by a small number of mega cap tech stocks which have risen due to excitement in the AI space, as well as hopes that the Fed’s rapid hiking cycle could now be over. US CPI data is set to be released next Tuesday, where economists predict that headline inflation will continue falling YoY. Unless there is a significant upside surprise in core or headline inflation, the Fed is expected to pause its streak of hikes at next week’s meeting.

European Markets 

The Euro Stoxx 50 is currently down 2.52% at 4,284, the DAX is 0.72% lower at 15,936, whilst the CAC 40 has fallen 1.01% to 7,197.

The Eurozone fell into a technical recession in the first three months of 2023 as signs emerge that rate rises are affecting the blocs future growth prospects.

France has strong-armed large food companies into cutting prices in an attempt to combat the rising cost of living, threatening sanctions if they break the promise.

UBS and the Swiss government on Friday signed an agreement to cover up to $10bn in losses from the emergency UBS takeover.

Fixed Income

Yields on 10-Year US government bonds rose by 0.06% this week to 3.75%, however yields fell from a midweek high of 3.79% after initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, hinting at a slowdown in the US labour market.  

Commodities

Brent Crude is set to end the week flat at $76 per barrel, after concerns over global economic activity and demand cancelled out the announcement from Saudi Arabia that promised supply cuts.

The Week Ahead 

Monday – US Monthly Budget Statement

Tuesday – US CPI

Wednesday – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thursday – ECB Interest Rate Decision

Friday – European CPI

*Price changes as of last week’s close unless stated otherwise.