Weekly Market Wrap 28/04/2023

US and Eurozone economic growth slowed by more than expected as fears of stagflation reappeared; stellar earnings and forecasts from several tech bellwethers kept the US stock market above water for the week. UK business surveys are less negative than at any point in the year and Japan moves to keep ultra-low rates but phase out its stimulus program as the BOJ’s new Governor embarks on policy review.

UK Market 

The UK market ended the week lower. UK companies surveyed this week are currently feeling the most optimistic about the UK business environment than at any point in the last year, with 33% of respondents stating they felt more confident about their trading outlook. These results potentially signal the start of positive momentum within the UK economy. The Conservative Party will face its first significant test under Rishi Sunak as UK local elections take place next week.

US Markets

The S&P 500 is set to end the week flat at 4,135 and the NASDAQ is 1.22% higher at 13,160. US markets rallied on Thursday as upbeat earnings from a number of the largest US companies temporarily calmed investor fears of an economic slowdown. Data released this week showed that US economic growth, slowed by more than expected in Q1, as businesses heavily reduced their inventories upon expectations that demand will fall in 2023. Jobs data showed a fall in the number of initial jobless claims, coming in below expectations and decreasing by 16,000 to 230,000. Lower than anticipated jobless claims hints at a strong labor market. The US debt-ceiling crisis remains unsolved despite the House of Representatives approving a Republican led bill that would lift the debt ceiling. A long running standoff between the Republicans and Democrats is expected to continue in the coming weeks as neither side looks to compromise on demands.

European Markets 

The Euro Stoxx 50 is currently down 1.53% at 4,017, the DAX is 0.96% lower at 15,729, whilst the CAC 40 has fell 2.10% to 7,417.

Euro zone GDP grew by less than expected in Q1 of 2023, as the economy expanded by just 0.1%. Continued increasing of interest rates by the ECB paired with record high levels of inflation appears to have begun taking its toll on the European economy. German GDP was flat in Q1, whilst economists had predicted a small gain of 0.2%. Despite 4Q GDP being revised slightly lower to -0.5% (previously -0.4%) the German government raised its economic projections for 2023, estimating growth of 0.4%, up from a previous estimate of 0.2%. European inflation data for April released next week is estimated to remain at 6.9%, whilst the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates a further 0.25% as inflation persists well above the 2% target.

Fixed Income

Yields on 10-Year US government bonds fell slightly over the week  to 3.52% ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week, where investors are strongly pricing in a 0.25% hike, taking rates to the 5-5.25% range.

Commodities

Brent Crude is on track for a 4.60% fall this week, with demand expectation dragged lower as US interest rates look set to rise above 5% next week, whilst US GDP data came in lower than expected.

The Week Ahead 

Monday – US Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday – European CPI

Wednesday – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Thursday – European Interest Rate

Friday – US Nonfarm Payrolls

*Price changes as of last week’s close unless stated otherwise.