Weekly Market Wrap 05/02/24

Both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve announced their latest interest rate decisions this week, whilst headline and core inflation data from the Eurozone was released. Both central bank heads gave the market hints over what the path for interest rates could look like, which caused movements in both the bond and commodity markets.

UK Market  

The UK market ended the week higher. The Bank of England’s latest MPC meeting took place last week, where rates were held at 5.25% as markets anticipated. Governor of the BoE Andrew Bailey said that he was “not going to commit” to a certain timeline for rate cuts, however told investors that he did not object the market’s current consensus view. Markets are currently pricing in the first BoE rate cut for June 2024 and see rates ending the year at 4.50%.

US Markets

The S&P 500 ended the week 1.38% higher, whilst the NASDAQ ended the week up 1.27%. US stocks sold off on Wednesday after comments from Chairman Jerome Powell caused investors to reassess their interest rate expectations. Powell told markets that rate cuts at the Fed’s next meeting in March (which had been expected by the market) were “unlikely” and that the Fed needed to gain confidence that inflation was on a path to 2% before rates could be reduced. Rates were held at the current range in the January meeting (5.25-5.50%) as expected. Markets rebounded strongly on Thursday and Friday, pushed higher towards the end of the week as better than expected corporate earnings for mega cap names pulled the market higher.

European Markets 

The Euro Stoxx 50 ended the week 0.31% higher. Eurozone inflation fell in line with expectations to 2.8% in January, down from 2.9% in December. However, core inflation figures disappointed, falling to 3.3% when a figure of 3.2% was expected, down from 3.4% in December. Services inflation remained at 4.0%, this reading paired with slowing disinflation for core CPI could cause concern over how much lower inflation can go.

 Commodities

Brent crude fell by 7.44%, dampened by news that rates will remain higher in the short-term, which could negatively impact demand.

Fixed Income

Yields on US 10-year bonds fell slightly to 4.03%, as treasuries saw significant inflows from investors despite Jerome Powell telling markets that a rate cut in March was “unlikely”.

The Week Ahead

Monday – US Services PMI

Tuesday – European Retail Sales

Wednesday – Fed’s Bowman Speech

Thursday – China CPI

Friday – German CPI

*x% up/down to price as of last week’s close