Weekly Market Wrap 03/11/2023

Investors were encouraged in their belief that interest rates had reached their peak, as recent decisions by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and other central banks indicated a stance of maintaining current rates.

UK Market  

The UK market ended the week higher. The Bank of England decided not to raise UK rates further at the bank’s November meeting, with members voting 6-3 in favour of keeping rates unchanged at 5.25%. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed that further rate hikes would be delivered if necessary and that the UK would need to see inflation fall significantly before rate cuts could be considered. The market is not pricing in any further rate hikes for the BoE, with the first cut expected in August 2024.

US Markets

The S&P 500 is currently up 4.87% this week, whilst the Nasdaq is set to end the week 5.21% higher.

The Fed left US rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% but noted a ‘long way to go’ in the battle against inflation. Economic data continues to be above expectations and investors await a significant employment report later today to gain further insights into the direction of interest rates. Major US companies’ earnings filled the headlines, with Apple notably disappointing on revenue, particularly from iPhones.

European Markets 

The Euro Stoxx 50 is currently 2.74% higher this week.  

Auto stocks led as European markets were boosted by optimism regarding a potential conclusion to monetary policy tightening by major central banks. Data released showed German exports fell more than expected in September as weak global demand hurt exports.

 Fixed Income

Yields on US 10-year bonds fell by 16 basis points this week to 4.66%, after it was announced that increases in treasury supplies would be smaller than expected.

Commodities

Brent crude fell by 4.17% this week, rising to $86.71 as concerns over the escalation of conflict in the middle east subsided.

The Week Ahead

Monday – German Factory Orders

Tuesday – European PPI

Wednesday – European Retail Sales

Thursday – US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday – UK GDP

 *x% up/down to price as of last week’s close