Weekly Market Wrap 13/11/2023

Investors look ahead to key inflation data, as all three major economies are set to release their latest CPI figures which will give a significant clue as to where global monetary policy could be heading next.

UK Market  

The UK market ended the week lower. UK GDP data was released on Friday, with data showing that the UK economy did not grow in Q3, however the flat figure was above economist consensus which had expected to see a contraction of 0.10%. UK CPI will be released on Wednesday, with inflation expected to fall to 4.8% from 6.7%. Meanwhile, core inflation is forecast to drop slightly to 5.8% from 6.1%.  Despite inflation being expected to continue falling, BoE governor Andrew Bailey told markets that it was too early to talk about the prospect of cutting rates given a number of upside risks for rates remain present.

US Markets

The S&P 500 ended the week 1.31% higher, whilst the Nasdaq ended the week 2.85% higher. Data released on Friday showed that US consumer sentiment fell by more than expected in November, with sentiment falling from 63.8 to 60.4 MoM. Sentiment was driven lower primarily by  fears over long term high interest rates and the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Consumer inflation expectations rose, with 1 year inflation expectations rising to 4.4%. US CPI will be released on Tuesday, with the important core inflation metric expected to remain at 4.1% for October, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

 European Markets 

The Euro Stoxx 50 ended the week 0.16% lower. Eurozone retail sales came in slightly better than expected on Wednesday, however still fell by 2.9% YoY, hinting at weak underlying demand in Europe. Producer prices data was also released in Europe, falling by 12.4% (estimate 12.5%) YoY due to a large decrease in energy prices relative to this time last year. Prices rose by 0.5% MoM, in line with estimates.

 Fixed Income

Yields on US 10-year bonds rose by 6 basis points across the week to 4.62%, as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as was expected. Chairman Jerome Powell did however remind markets that rates could be increased further if inflation does not continue to go lower.

Commodities

Brent crude fell by 4.08% this week, falling to $81.43 as concerns around levels of demand from both the US and China emerged.

The Week Ahead

Monday – Europe Economic Growth Forecasts

Tuesday – US CPI

Wednesday – UK CPI

Thursday – US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday – European CPI

*x% up/down to price as of last week’s close