Weekly Market Wrap 15/01/24

Markets fell on the back of strong GDP, employment and inflation data as good news continues to be seen as bad news in light of central bank monetary policy.

UK Market  

The UK market ended the week lower. UK GDP data came in higher than expected for November, growing by 0.3% MoM when a 0.2% increase had been expected. However, GDP in the 3 months to the end of November fell by 0.2%, more than the expected 0.1%. This data means that the UK economy is at risk of falling into a mild recession. UK CPI data is set to be released next week, with both headline and core CPI expected to slow slightly in the month of December.

US Markets

The S&P 500 ended the week 1.84% lower, whilst the NASDAQ ended the week 3.23% lower. US inflation data surprised to the upside on Thursday, with headline inflation coming in at 3.4% for December (estimate 3.2%), up from 3.1% in November. US Core CPI was also higher than expected (3.9% vs the estimate of 3.8%), a slight drop from the 4.0% figure seen in November. Higher than expected CPI data worried investors that the Fed may decide to keep rates in the US higher for longer to tackle persistent inflation, these fears were not aided by the release of initial jobless claims data which showed fewer Americans out of work than expected. 202k claims were made in the first week of 2024, less than the expected 210k, showing signs of a resilient economy, that could be perceived to be able to withstand continued higher rates. PPI data, however, surprised to the downside, falling by 0.1% MoM when an increase of 0.1% was forecast. 

European Markets 

The Euro Stoxx 50 ended the week flat. Eurozone retail sales data was released last week, falling by less than expected (1.1% YoY, while a drop of 1.5% was expected). In another positive surprise for the European economy, unemployment unexpectedly fell to 6.4%, when a flat reading of 6.5% was expected.

Fixed Income

Yields on US 10-year bonds rose fell across the week to 3.93%, after soft PPI data boosted expectations of rate cuts.

Commodities

Brent crude fell by 0.60% ending the week at $78.29 per barrel as tensions rose after UK and US strikes in retaliation to Houthi attacks on ships in the red sea.

The Week Ahead

Monday –

Tuesday – UK Unemployment

Wednesday – UK CPI, PPI & US Retail Sales

Thursday – US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday – UK Retail Sales

*x% up/down to price as of last week’s close